Raimund Bürger, Gerardo Chowell, Pep Mulet, Luis M. Villada:
Modelling the spatial-temporal evolution of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Chile
A spatial-temporal transmission model of 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic influenza across Chile, a country that spans a large latitudinal gradient, is developed to characterize the spatial variation in peak timing of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza as a function of spatial connectivity assumptions across Chilean regions and the location of introduction of the virus into the country. The resulting model is a SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-removed) compartmental model with local diffusion and optional non-local terms to describe the migration of individuals of the S, E and R classes and the effect of a "hub region'. This model is used along with epidemiological data to explore the spatial-temporal progression of pandemic influenza in Chile by assuming arange of transmission scenarios. Numerical results indicate that this relatively simple model is sufficient to characterize the south-north gradient observed during the 2009 influenza pandemic in Chile, and that the "hub region' corresponding to the capital region plays the critical role in keeping the population well mixed in a relatively short period of time
This preprint gave rise to the following definitive publication(s):
Raimund BüRGER, Gerardo CHOWELL, Pep MULET, Luis M. VILLADA: Modelling the spatial-temporal evolution of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Chile. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, vol. 13, 1, pp. 43-65, (2016).